Elior sends mixed signals. The number two in collective catering in France has, for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, delivered quantified financial objectives. For 2021-2022, it targets an EBITDA margin (operating margin before goodwill amortization) of between 2% and 2.5% (i.e. a very clear improvement) and organic growth (at constant exchange rates and scope). minimum turnover of 18%.
In the process, Oddo raised its growth and profitability forecasts for the restaurant owner and is now targeting 6.20 euros (on the basis of fundamentals alone), against 5.70 euros previously. This suggests a slight potential for appreciation, compared to the estimated theoretical fair value of the share. However, Philippe Guillemot, the general manager, threw a cold by indicating that due to the new wave of Covid-19 in Europe and therefore the probable return of teleworking, this would negatively affect Elior’s future income.
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Over the year as a whole, Elior reduced its loss of Ebita to 64 million euros and also recorded over the period July-September “its best quarter since the start of the pandemic, with sales equivalent to 85% of that of the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2018-2019. When we compare the forecast results with its competitors, Sodexo and Compass, we see that they are however less ambitious, ”denounces Antoine Fraysse-Soulier, head of market analysis at eToro.
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What does technical analysis say?
In view of the technical analysis (graphical and mathematical analysis of prices), the Elior share follows a downward trend. The 23-day moving average acts as dynamic bearish resistance. The action is attempting a technical rebound after Friday’s Omicron variant shock, but it could soon fail.
A possible net and closing depression of the horizontal support of 5.57-5.58 euros could extend the downward movement towards the support of 5.21-5.28 euros. Conversely, only a clear and confirmed overflow of the major resistance zone of 7.40-7.70 euros would instill an upward dynamic in the medium term.
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